Spokane, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

972
FXUS66 KOTX 152238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light Rain for the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Washington
  overnight into Friday morning

- Increasing rain showers on Saturday into Sunday with a 20-30%
  chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery weather pattern will continue through at
least early next week. In addition, breezy winds are expected at
times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday Night: A weakening and stretching frontal
boundary moving into western Washington this afternoon will cross
the Cascades into Central WA this evening, and then into Eastern
WA/N Idaho overnight into Friday morning. Despite the weakening
nature, models are in good agreement that as the front encounters
the rising terrain of Eastern WA/N Idaho light rain will develop.
Also boosting confidence in the high moisture content with this
wave as precipitable water values increase to 125-140 percent of
normal.  For Central WA weak downslope flow off the Cascades
combined with dry air in the lower levels to initially overcome
is expected to result in little to no rain for places like Omak,
Wenatchee, and Moses Lake. Friday afternoon as this wave exits
showers will become focused over the orographically favored
terrain of NE Washington and the ID Panhandle. For Friday Night
the next system approaches with a chance of showers mainly in
the Cascades and NE Washington. JW

Friday night through Sunday morning: A low pressure system off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest will begin spinning up Friday
evening into Saturday. By Sunday, the system will be moving
southeast and stretching, centered over Idaho and Utah. This
system will bring a rainy weekend to most of the forecast area.
Ensembles and clusters are still struggling with the track of
the low, with half the WPC clusters favoring the low swinging
further south and the other half showing it staying a bit north
of Utah. There is also the chance for a deformation band to move
through the Lewiston/Pullman/southern Panhandle area, which
could lead to higher rain amounts. Currently, in far eastern
Washington (Spokane/Pullman/Northeast Blue Mountains) and the
Idaho Panhandle have a 30 percent chance or higher of seeing at
least a quarter inch of rain between Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. Other parts of the forecast area, including the
Cascades and areas east of Omak, have a 20 percent chance or
higher of seeing a wetting (0.1 inches) amount of rain, with
those percentages increasing as you move eastward. On Saturday
afternoon, as the trough axis is sitting right above us, there
will be enough lift for a chance of thunderstorms. While SBCAPE
is relatively low (100 to 200 J/kg), there could be a few
isolated thunderstorms throughout the day across the forecast
area. As such, the SPC has us in general thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain will occur late
Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, with the highest
rainfall totals anticipated in the southern Panhandle and the
Northern Mountains. Due to the aforementioned ensemble model
disagreement, we will keep a close eye on this system in the
next few days, as any major changes in the low pressure track
have the potential to change rainfall totals.

After the low pressure system moves out of the area, weather
will remain slightly unsettled with light bouts of
precipitation as small waves move through. This precipitation
will be mainly confined to the mountains due to orographic lift.
As mostly dry conditions prevail, temperatures will rise back
into the mid to high 60s for much of the area. Right now, due to
much of the area outside of the mountains being dry after the
weekend storm, the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks have the
forecast area either at near normal or leaning below normal
precipitation through the end of May. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through 09z-12z tonight.
A system comes in later this evening into Friday morning, with
a chance for -ra over TAF sites starting first near EAT and
expanding toward MWH through the evening, then overnight into
early Friday at other TAF sites. Around 12-14z, light rain will
increase over the eastern TAF sites (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS),
with widespread MVFR conditions expected to develop.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HREF is showing a 90-100% chance of MVFR conditions developing
at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW between 12-15z Friday as rain develops.
In addition, there is near a 40% chance that these CIGS lower
even further to IFR. JW
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  57  44  64  45  57 /  40  70  20  60  60  60
Coeur d`Alene  43  54  41  65  45  55 /  30  70  20  60  60  70
Pullman        42  55  41  61  42  55 /  40  70  10  60  70  60
Lewiston       48  62  46  69  49  61 /  50  70  10  60  70  60
Colville       43  56  39  63  39  60 /  20  60  40  70  60  60
Sandpoint      43  54  42  64  44  54 /  20  70  40  60  60  80
Kellogg        42  52  43  62  47  50 /  30  70  20  50  70  80
Moses Lake     46  69  49  68  45  67 /  20  20  10  60  40  10
Wenatchee      47  68  49  66  48  63 /  20  10  10  60  30  10
Omak           47  65  46  65  44  65 /  20  40  20  70  60  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$